Date and Time: Monday, 15 February 2010, 15:45 - 16:45

Location: HG 6.96

Speaker: Joshua Sack (School of Computer Science, Reykjavík University)

Title: Probability and dynamics — an overview

Abstract:

Dynamic logic describes change, how processes, states, or situations change given certain actions or events. One way probability may play a role is if the results of the actions or events are not entirely certain, and this uncertainty can be quantified using probability. Another way probability and dynamics are combined is when it is the probabilities themselves that are subject to change as new information is provided. Bayesian updating is the most accepted mechanism for change in probability that results when such information received is fully understood and taken to be true. But less trusted or understood information may require different types of updating. One way to justify probabilistic updating mechanism is to adapt to the new circumstances a betting game argument, called a Dutch book argument, that has been used to justify Bayesian updating through the possibility of a winning strategy in such a game. This talk provides an overview of ways dynamic logic and probability are combined.